Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 28.851875 30.748478 32.783202 35.142143 37.819408 40.785229 44.350031
2025-12-14 25.699984 28.165157 30.949606 34.370819 38.524251 43.491555 50.026847
2025-12-21 23.834594 26.557753 29.730985 33.775184 38.907747 45.381385 54.488464
2025-12-28 23.057711 26.092240 29.733999 34.543626 40.927083 49.442573 62.351472
2026-01-04 22.309753 25.562545 29.561315 35.002692 42.510569 53.046927 70.205812
2026-01-11 21.636867 25.055941 29.347022 35.341801 43.909377 56.520704 78.578084
2026-01-18 20.888627 24.393115 28.864583 35.246399 44.638544 59.044973 85.933194
2026-01-25 20.026234 23.528397 28.050983 34.608710 44.475767 60.102564 90.850137
2026-02-01 19.264961 22.754570 27.308918 34.006466 44.287961 61.061308 95.791052
2026-02-08 18.581600 22.050403 26.620247 33.425907 44.065321 61.907143 100.712066
2026-02-15 18.026203 21.491545 26.099974 33.051412 44.124014 63.237116 107.103207
2026-02-22 17.898837 21.499791 26.361585 33.849698 46.153955 68.471386 124.941569
2026-03-01 17.450959 21.063240 25.988527 33.679353 46.583678 70.807874 136.698352
2026-03-08 16.883915 20.442526 25.325716 33.019728 46.109820 71.262529 143.291149
2026-03-15 16.383640 19.896080 24.745512 32.453017 45.744858 71.883661 150.826429
2026-03-22 16.285641 19.904829 24.968430 33.171131 47.750583 77.986550 182.088285
2026-03-29 16.111919 19.798024 25.012753 33.597663 49.260287 83.332007 216.965344
2026-04-05 15.918637 19.654728 24.993409 33.913073 50.587750 88.574821 259.922180
2026-04-12 15.633453 19.368940 24.745261 33.824364 51.104201 91.873741 298.663964
2026-04-19 15.238017 18.912031 24.219324 33.231246 50.543701 92.155842 317.808873
2026-04-26 14.869496 18.484897 23.725550 32.670540 50.007005 92.428344 338.610535
2026-05-03 14.522573 18.080884 23.255218 32.129519 49.471395 92.628899 360.597315
2026-05-10 14.237049 17.759825 22.903525 31.780262 49.314318 93.936039 398.702663